Why Pakistan has emerged as a mediator between US and Iran

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ISLAMABAD (AP) — It was initially seen as an unexpected mediator, but this week Pakistan has established itself as a key player in bringing Iran and the United States to the negotiating table. Now, it is awaiting representatives from both countries to meet in Islamabad, as the world watches to see whether the talks could lead toward an end to the war.

Since Washington and Tehran agreed to an initial 14-day ceasefire on Tuesday, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and the powerful army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir have been sharing messages about conversations with world leaders, highlighting their role as mediators. President Donald Trump has repeatedly referred to Munir as “my favorite field marshal” since last year, when he helped mediate a ceasefire between Pakistan and India.

Islamabad isn't often called on to act as an intermediary in high-stakes diplomacy, but it's stepped into the role this time for a number of reasons, both because it has relatively good ties with both Washington and Tehran and because it has a lot at stake in seeing the war resolved.

Pakistani government officials have said that their public peace effort follows weeks of quiet diplomacy, though they have provided few details. The talks are expected to take place in Islamabad on Saturday following the arrival of both delegations. Pakistan ramped up security across the city with additional troops and police.

Here's what to know about Pakistan's mediation effort:

Pakistan’s role in Iran-U.S. negotiations surfaced a few weeks ago following media reports. Officials in Islamabad later acknowledged that a U.S. proposal had been conveyed to Iran.

It remains unclear who has served as Iran’s point of contact in the indirect talks.

According to Pakistani officials, U.S. messages were being passed to Iran and Iranian responses relayed to Washington, though they did not specify how the process was being handled or who was directly communicating with whom. Pakistan said that Turkey and Egypt were also working behind the scenes to bring the sides to the negotiating table.

But days passed with no indication of progress. Last weekend, Trump escalated his threats and issued what seemed like a final deadline to Iran, saying that if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, “the entire country can be taken out.” That same day, he also said that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” adding, “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”

Pakistan and other countries were already working behind the scenes to reach an agreement and avoid an escalation.

Then, before the deadline, Sharif tweeted: “With the greatest humility, I am pleased to announce that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire.” The U.S. and Iran also confirmed it.

Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, said that Pakistan can show to the world it is “an influential regional actor” thanks to its work as mediator.

“Islamabad can also enjoy a measure of vindication: for having defied the skeptics who didn’t think it could pull off such a feat,” he wrote in Foreign Policy magazine this week.

Previous U.S.-Iran negotiations have been facilitated mainly by countries in the Middle East, including Oman and Qatar, but as they came under Iranian fire, Pakistan stepped into the role.

Analysts say Pakistan’s geographic proximity to Iran — it’s one of its neighbors — coupled with its longstanding ties with the U.S., gives it a unique position at a time when direct communication between the two sides remains constrained.

Islamabad also has close strategic ties with Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, with which it signed a defense cooperation agreement last year. However, Pakistan has no diplomatic relations with Israel because of the lingering issue of Palestinian statehood.

Relations between the U.S. and Pakistan have improved since last year, with increased diplomatic engagement and expanding economic ties. Islamabad also joined Trump's Board of Peace, which aims to ensure peace in Gaza, despite opposition from Islamists at home.

The conflict poses some of “the biggest economic and energy security challenges” in Pakistan’s history, said Islamabad-based security analyst Syed Mohammad Ali.

The country gets most of its oil and gas from the Middle East — and, he said, the 5 million Pakistanis working in the Arab world send home remittances each year roughly equal to the country’s total export earnings.

Rising tensions have already contributed to higher global oil prices, forcing Pakistan to increase fuel prices by about 20% and putting pressure on Sharif's government.

The war is also adding to domestic turmoil, even as Pakistan has been grappling for months with its own conflict with neighboring Afghanistan. Islamabad has accused the country's Taliban government of tolerating militant groups that are behind attacks in Pakistan.

Earlier this month, protests erupted across the country following U.S. strikes on Iran, with demonstrators clashing with security forces in several cities. At least 22 people were killed and over 120 injured in clashes in Karachi a day after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Another 12 people were killed after a mob tried to storm the U.S. Consulate in Karachi on March 1.

Khamenei was a central religious and political figure for Shiites worldwide, including in Pakistan.

Pakistan’s then-President Gen. Yahya Khan facilitated back-channel contacts that led to U.S. President Richard Nixon’s historic 1972 visit to China. That paved the way for the establishment of diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing in 1979.

Since then, Pakistan has played a role in several other complex regional conflicts, most notably during the 1988 Geneva Accords that paved the way for the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. Acting as a front line state and key interlocutor, Islamabad participated in U.N.-brokered negotiations while working closely with the United States and other stakeholders and helped increase pressure on Moscow to pull out its forces.

More recently, Pakistan facilitated contacts between the Afghan Taliban and Washington that led to talks in Doha that culminated in a 2020 agreement and set the stage for the withdrawal of U.S.-led NATO troops and the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.

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Castillo reported from Beijing.