Outcome of Alaska Senate race may not be known for weeks

(The Center Square)—The outcome of a tightly contested and controversial U.S. Senate race in Alaska may not be known until the end of the month or later. 

U.S. Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, a Republican, is making a bid for a third six-year term. As of 2:20 p.m. EDT, he trails former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, a Democrat, by 626 votes with 77% of ballots counted. He has 102,075 votes to her 102,701. The race has been the focus of controversy after The New York Times reported that Peltola's campaign helped recruit a candidate with the same name as Sullivan in an apparent attempt to confuse voters. She has denied doing that.

Twenty-three percent of votes have yet to be tallied. Even when they are, the narrow margin separating the candidates means that the outcome may be decided not at the state’s polling sites but through the mail via absentee and questioned ballots.  

In the previous midterm congressional election four years ago, Alaska officials said they received 9,143 in-person absentee ballots and 8,009 questioned ballots. Two years ago, in the presidential election, state officials reported receiving 18,158 in-person absentee ballots and 15,138 questioned ballots. Voters can ask for a mail-in ballot and still vote in person, so the number of outstanding votes in the state’s general elections in 2022 and 2024 is unclear. 

Steve Kirch, public relations manager for the state’s division of elections, did not immediately return an interview request. 

What is clear is the 49th state’s deadline for counting all votes.  

By Nov. 13, absentee ballots from the 50 states plus its territories as well as Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, and American Samoa should have arrived and must be postmarked by Nov. 3. By Nov. 18, all ballots from overseas addresses must be received and postmarked by Election Day. By Nov. 19, the State Review Board begins its review of election materials, and by Nov. 25, state officials expect to certify the election results. 

In addition, Alaska has ranked choice voting. Peltola or Sullivan will need to receive more than 50 percent of the first-choice votes after officials have counted them all. If neither does, the last-place candidate is eliminated. Then, state officials redistribute that candidate's ballots according to voters’ second and subsequent choices. The process continues until a candidate receives a majority, or 50% plus one vote.

Despite the state’s deadlines, federal officials may complicate them. 

The Justice Department has sent a target letter to prominent Democratic elections attorney Marc Elias asking about his possible involvement in petitioning a retired teacher by the name of Dan J. Sullivan to run for Alaska’s Senate seat, according to the Associated Press.

An email to the Justice Department’s press office requesting comment was not immediately returned.